Brexit: The Uncivil War

The film's opening frames a 2020 public inquiry where Dominic Cummings argues that technology is reshaping politics and society in the United Kingdom. He voices frustration at the panel's limited grasp of how data and platforms influence public opinion. The scene establishes the central clash between algorithmic campaigning and traditional political processes.

In 2015, Cummings initially rejects Douglas Carswell and Matthew Elliott's offer to lead Vote Leave, citing his contempt for Westminster politics. He agrees only after Carswell promises him full control over the campaign. The decision marks the start of a technology-driven election strategy.

Cummings pivots from posters and leaflets to algorithmic, database-driven micro-targeting delivered through social media. He argues this model can identify and persuade undecided voters with precision. The approach creates tensions with traditional MPs and donors who prefer conventional campaigning.

Leave.EU proposes a merger with Nigel Farage, but Cummings rejects the move, insisting that Farage would obstruct a majority. He keeps the Vote Leave operation independent to execute his data-driven plan. The clash signals early fractures within the pro-Brexit coalition.

John Mills, chair of Vote Leave, tries to fire Cummings to merge with Leave.EU. Instead, Mills's move backfires and he is fired, consolidating Cummings's control over the campaign. The power struggle underscores how raw ambition and internal politics can shape the referendum's tactics.

Cummings and Remain strategist Craig Oliver outline their contrasting approaches and identify the undecided voters as the decisive group. Oliver focuses on Jobs and the Economy, while Cummings emphasizes Loss of Control and Turkey's potential EU entry as the larger concern. Their exchange sets up the narrative clash that drives the campaign.

Cummings hires Zack Massingham of AggregateIQ to build a database of voters not on the UK electoral register but inclined to leave. He also takes MP Douglas Carswell to Jaywick, where a local couple articulates the destitution facing many constituents. The scene shows how micro-targeting intersects with personal stories on the ground.

Arron Banks meets Robert Mercer, discussing the potential of social media data tools to influence voters. The dialogue hints at the influx of private data-driven tactics into the Leave campaign. The scene foreshadows the ethical and strategic questions raised by these methods.

Oliver's traditional focus groups fail to capture concerns, culminating in a mass quarrel where a participant cries out about feeling unheard. The campaign staff grow demoralized as feedback suggests a disconnect with ordinary voters. The moment forces Oliver to rethink his messaging strategy.

In the final stretch, high-profile Conservative MPs Michael Gove and Boris Johnson publicly join Vote Leave, reinforcing the 'Take Back Control' message. Penny Mordaunt voices concerns on BBC about Turkey's accession, adding policy tensions to the messaging. The team grapples with balancing ambitious claims against political risk.

Gove and Johnson express reluctance about certain claims, such as the £350 million per week NHS figure and Turkey migration numbers, but the campaign continues to push the core message. Campaign leadership negotiates how to present provocative claims without derailing momentum. The episode highlights ethical strains in campaigning under scrutiny.

Oliver orchestrates an emergency Tory-Labour Remain conference call with Prime Minister David Cameron and Peter Mandelson. Each side blames the other for Remain's decline, exposing fractures within the anti-Brexit coalition. The exchange underscores the fragility of coalition messaging.

Following the murder of MP Jo Cox, Cummings and Oliver share a drink and discuss events. Cummings compares his campaign to starting a train that cannot be stopped, while Oliver warns that you cannot control it either. The moment underscores the emotional toll of the referendum saga.

On 23 June 2016, Britain votes narrowly to leave the EU. After delivering his victory speech, Cummings quietly leaves the Vote Leave campaign office. The result completes the campaign's arc and raises questions about post-victory fallout.

Back in the present at the 2020 public inquiry, Cummings outlines his disappointment with how the political system reacted after the Leave victory. He reveals a sense of disillusionment with institutions responding mechanically to the outcome. He walks out of the inquiry in disgust, signaling unresolved tensions between data-driven campaigning and democratic processes.