Deception 5 steps
The 'Boy Who Cried Wolf' Intelligence Strategy
Ashraf Marwan supplied Israeli intelligence with warnings of imminent attacks that never materialized, leading Mossad to doubt his reliability, so that his genuine alert about the Egyptian assault on Yom Kippur was dismissed and the attack achieved surprise.
Read the 5 steps as text
- 1
Warnings of attacks that never materialize
Ashraf Marwan · Mossad
What it looked like: The warnings appeared to be genuine intelligence reports that simply proved inaccurate, making Ashraf seem an unreliable source.
Ashraf, acting as a reluctant messenger, warns his Israeli counterparts of imminent attacks that do not materialize.
- 2
Mossad doubts Ashraf's reliability
Ashraf Marwan · Mossad
Because the warned attacks do not materialize, Mossad comes to doubt Ashraf's reliability.
- 3
Genuine Yom Kippur warning is dismissed
Ashraf Marwan · Alex · Zvi Zamir · Mossad
What it looked like: To Alex and Zamir the alert looked like another of Ashraf's failed warnings rather than a genuine impending assault.
Having regained Mossad's confidence, Ashraf alerts Alex and Mossad chief Zvi Zamir of an impending Egyptian assault on Yom Kippur, but his warning is dismissed yet again.
- 4
Surprise attack proceeds
Ashraf Marwan
Ashraf devises a pretext for a swift yet effective surprise attack on Israel, believing that true peace necessitates strategic sacrifices.
- 5
Alex acknowledges the strategy
Alex · Ashraf Marwan
Years later, Alex reconnects with Ashraf, presents him with a copy of Aesop's Fables, and acknowledges the wisdom embedded in the Boy Who Cried Wolf strategy.
