We are introduced to the dazzling lights of Las Vegas as the camera glides over the city, eventually focusing on the Shangri-La hotel. Inside the bustling casino, guests revel in luck—until we meet Joe, a floor boss who urgently needs Bernie Lootz (William H. Macy). The moment Bernie arrives in a shabby suit, disaster strikes, and luck turns against everyone as he limps through the crowd. As he greets Doris, a friendly barmaid, he requests coffee with cream, but the creamer is empty, hinting at the bad luck he brings.
Not far away, the beautiful waitress, Natalie Belisario (Maria Bello), arrives to deliver a drink. Bernie’s attempts to engage her are thwarted by her preoccupation with Shelly. Despite promising to speak to Shelly about her position at the casino, Natalie brushes him off as she leaves. Soon after, Joe instructs Bernie to tend to a player on table 11, and he asks Natalie for assistance, which only further damages her luck.
In the office, Shelly Kaplow (Alec Baldwin) grapples with demands for change in the Shangri-La's management from newly appointed VP Larry Sokolov. Shelly's frustration boils over as Larry argues for modernization, insisting the Shangri-La can no longer survive by merely relying on nostalgia. Meanwhile, Bernie laments to Shelly that he will soon leave, claiming he won’t be around much longer.
When Bernie returns to his motel, filled with regret and anxiety, we see him struggle with the chaos of his life. The next day, following his usual disastrous impact at the casino, he encounters a pregnant woman who is ultimately revealed to be his estranged son Mikey’s partner. Mikey's life choices highlight Bernie’s past—a cycle of regret fueled by gambling and mistakes.
As Michelle deals with the fallout of an overdose from the casino’s lounge singer, Bernie finds a moment of connection with Natalie. They bond over conversations of dreams and broken pasts in a diner, where Bernie's bad luck appears to let up, thanks to their chemistry. Yet, their happiness is complex, as they both navigate their inner demons.
A candid moment leads to intimacy until Bernie’s old habits reemerge, prompting doubts about his worthiness of love. As they open up to each other about their shared struggles, they experience a brief reprieve from their miserable realities. However, the complications of life in Vegas inevitably catch up to them.
While Shelly grapples with his own insecurities about his casino and employees, he resorts to desperate measures to maintain dominance, including horrendous acts against those who cross him. As Bernie confronts Shelly’s darkness, he also reawakens the courage to confront his past mistakes.
The climax hits when Shelly threatens both Bernie and Natalie, leading to a confrontation that emphasizes the struggle for control and survival. Through a series of risky bets and strong strokes of luck, Bernie attempts to turn his luck around, but the old patterns of fate have their own ways of snapping back.
The story culminates in a desperate escape as love blooms amid chaos, but the unpredictability of life in Las Vegas takes another lethal turn, culminating in twists that challenge faith and destiny.
Ultimately, amidst the uncertainty, Bernie and Natalie realize that no matter the outcome, the journey they share is worth more than the luck they may or may not possess. They drive off into the horizon, hoping for a brighter future, juxtaposed against the fallout at the Shangri-La, setting the stage for an uncertain but shared destiny.
