Pursuit to Algiers

Holmes uses a decoy because he distrusts plans laid by others and anticipates that assassins will target the prince during the voyage. By swapping the real Prince Nikolas with a lookalike, Holmes creates a trap for the conspirators while keeping the actual heir safe in plain sight as a steward. This deception allows Holmes to identify and neutralize the threats without risking the prince's life.

Holmes instructs Watson to introduce the 'prince' as his nephew, signaling from early on that something is amiss with the royal passenger.

The real Prince Nikolas poses as a steward throughout the entire voyage, moving among the passengers unnoticed. Holmes keeps this information tightly guarded, even from most of the crew. This explains why the villains, despite their careful surveillance, consistently target the wrong person.

The timeline notes Holmes instructs Watson to introduce the prince as his nephew, suggesting the official 'prince' may not be who he claims to be.

Watson is left behind because the airplane arranged for the journey can only carry two passengers after experiencing engine trouble. Holmes takes the smaller craft with the prince while Watson is instructed to follow on a passenger ship bound for Algiers. This separation actually works to Holmes's advantage, as it allows the decoy plan to unfold without Watson knowing all the details.

Holmes's preference for improvisation over fixed plans is evident when he calmly accepts the changed arrangements.

The three operatives who board at Lisbon are Gregor, Mirko, and Gubec. Gregor serves as the leader and uses an explosive party favor in his assassination attempt. Mirko is a circus knife-thrower who attempts to kill Holmes by hurling a knife through a porthole. Gubec is a large, mute hulking figure who provides physical strength for the conspiracy.

Watson notes suspicious passengers early in the voyage, including secretive pairs who later turn out to be archaeologists, creating a red herring before the true threats arrive.

Holmes allows the kidnapping because he knows the decoy is not the real Prince Nikolas. The kidnapping is part of his plan to draw out the conspirators and confirm their identities. By letting them believe they've succeeded, Holmes gains the advantage and can orchestrate their capture once they reveal their true intentions.

Holmes remains calm and one step ahead throughout the attacks, suggesting he anticipated these exact moves.

Holmes foils Mirko's knife attack through quick reflexes when the knife comes through the porthole. He anticipates the threat and reacts instantly, catching or deflecting the weapon before it can harm anyone. This demonstrates Holmes's constant vigilance and ability to stay ahead of assassins despite the confined, dangerous environment of the ship.

Holmes keeps a wary eye on everyone aboard the ship from the moment they depart, showing he expects danger.

The Pyrenees crash report creates a crucial moment of uncertainty and misdirection. Watson reads that the airplane carrying Holmes and the prince reportedly crashed in the Pyrenees with no survivors. This news suggests the mission has already failed, yet Holmes remains aboard the ship, confirming he deliberately avoided the original plan. The crash was either staged or the plane was a decoy itself, reinforcing Holmes's distrust of predetermined arrangements.

Holmes chose to travel by ship rather than take the arranged airplane, suggesting he knew the original plan was compromised.

Holmes distrusts the original arrangement because the Prime Minister of Rovinia arranged the entire mission, and Holmes has a well-known aversion to working within plans laid by others. This characteristic is central to his methodology, he prefers to control the variables himself. By switching to a ship and implementing his own decoy strategy, Holmes ensures the conspiracy plays out on his terms rather than his enemies'.

The Prime Minister's cryptic invitation and urgent request arrive just as Holmes plans a holiday, hinting that outside forces are manipulating events.

Holmes prevents Gregor's explosive plot by substituting or neutralizing the explosive party favor before it can detonate. As with the knife attack, Holmes remains vigilant and anticipates the conspirators' moves, foiling Gregor's attempt with the same calm precision he shows throughout the voyage.

Holmes is already watching Gregor closely after the knife attack, suggesting he expects additional attempts on his life.

After the villains kidnap the decoy prince in Algiers, Holmes quickly recovers him unharmed. The decoy was never in real danger because Holmes controlled the entire situation. Once the real Prince Nikolas is revealed safe, the decoy's role is complete and the rightful heir is confirmed to be secure.

Holmes reveals the intricate deception only after the kidnapping attempt, demonstrating his confidence throughout that the plan would succeed.